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產(chǎn)品名稱： 東莞市謝崗鎮(zhèn)DHL國際快遞

產(chǎn)品型號： 謝崗鎮(zhèn)DHL國際快遞

產(chǎn)品信息：

東莞市謝崗鎮(zhèn)DHL國際快遞工作日時(shí)間：09:00-18:00(星期六 10:00-18:00)

　　DHL 全球貿(mào)易晴雨表 (GTB)表明未來三個(gè)月世界貿(mào)易將進(jìn)一步收縮。整體貿(mào)易前景下調(diào) -2 點(diǎn)，新指數(shù)值為 45。這意味著全球貿(mào)易繼續(xù)失去動力，盡管是溫和的。與之前的更新相比，下跌趨勢基本溫和而穩(wěn)定，既不表明下跌加速，也不表明觸底反彈。除印度外，所有接受調(diào)查的國家都受到減速和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的指數(shù)低于 50 點(diǎn)的無增長門檻的影響。整體下降是由空運(yùn)和集裝箱海運(yùn)貿(mào)易的小幅下降造成的。航空貿(mào)易下降 -3 至 42 點(diǎn)，集裝箱海運(yùn)貿(mào)易下降 -2 至 46 個(gè)指數(shù)點(diǎn)。為了使 DHL 全球貿(mào)易晴雨表及其數(shù)據(jù)更具可性，我們在下面創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)新的數(shù)字平臺Logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb. 此外，彭博終端的訂閱者現(xiàn)在也可以使用代碼“DHLG ”獲得該指數(shù)。

　　“根據(jù) DHL 全球貿(mào)易晴雨表，今年可能會以溫和的世界貿(mào)易結(jié)束。然而，我們必須牢記我們的來源：近年來世界貿(mào)易的快速增長就像攀登珠穆朗瑪峰�，F(xiàn)在，我們正在下降，但我們?nèi)栽诤粑�高空空氣”，DHL Global Forwarding Freight 執(zhí)行官 Tim Scharwath 說。

　　穩(wěn)定但溫和的下降對所有國家產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，印度除外

　　在七個(gè)接受調(diào)查的國家中，有六個(gè)國家的貿(mào)易前景略為負(fù)面：德國和中國均下降 -3 點(diǎn)，指數(shù)分別為 45 和 42。對于德國而言，這一發(fā)展主要是由航空貿(mào)易前景疲軟引發(fā)的，該指數(shù)大幅下降 -7 點(diǎn)至 45。被調(diào)查的國家。毋庸置疑，這種低迷可以歸因于中美之間正在進(jìn)行的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。預(yù)計(jì)美國貿(mào)易也將進(jìn)一步收縮，盡管總體貿(mào)易前景幾乎保持不變，為 44 個(gè)指數(shù)點(diǎn)（與上次更新相比為 -1 點(diǎn)）。韓國的整體前景下降 -2 點(diǎn)至 43 的新指數(shù)值。

　　“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正進(jìn)入停滯階段，反映出一些主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長乏力且放緩，其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體基本沒有增長或溫和收縮。持續(xù)的貿(mào)易緊張局勢、政治不穩(wěn)定和地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加劇以及對貨幣刺激措施效力有限的擔(dān)憂繼續(xù)侵蝕企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者信心，對投資和生產(chǎn)力增長產(chǎn)生不利影響。美國紐約州伊薩卡市康奈爾大學(xué)貿(mào)易政策與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授 Eswar S. Prasad 評論道，家庭消費(fèi)的增長一直是近期經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)，它一直保持強(qiáng)勁，但在主要發(fā)達(dá)和新興市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體中正在減弱�！暗� DHL 全球貿(mào)易晴雨表更新顯示，國際貿(mào)易流量受到這些因素的不利影響。中國和美國這兩個(gè)全球增長的主要驅(qū)動力的指數(shù)下降預(yù)示著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景惡化�？傮w而言，此次 GTB 更新描繪了一幅令人警醒的圖景，即今年剩余時(shí)間世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和全球貿(mào)易的黯淡前景�！�

　　印度是一個(gè)設(shè)法恢復(fù)溫和增長前景的國家，在非常強(qiáng)勁的海洋貿(mào)易的支持下，該指數(shù)上升了 5 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至 54。與持續(xù)疲軟的航空貿(mào)易（-4 點(diǎn)至 44）相反，印度洋貿(mào)易顯著增加了 +10 至 60 的指數(shù)。

　　與上一期相比，下降到達(dá)日本和英國的延遲：損失的國家

　　除印度外，有兩個(gè)國家發(fā)展尤其突出：日本和英國。雖然在 9 月的上一次更新中，日本和英國是僅有的貿(mào)易前景樂觀的國家，但這兩個(gè)國家在此期間的跌幅。日本和英國都跌破了 50 點(diǎn)門檻。

　　日本貿(mào)易增長一段時(shí)間后，對日本的預(yù)測下降 -5 點(diǎn)至 48。這種預(yù)期的放緩主要是由于日本航空貿(mào)易的前景疲軟，下降 -7 點(diǎn)至 42 指數(shù)點(diǎn)。下降-4 點(diǎn)至 51，日本海洋貿(mào)易仍錄得正增長勢頭。然而，略微樂觀的前景并不能抵消日本航空貿(mào)易的大幅下滑。與日本不同，英國貿(mào)易在上次更新中已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)下降趨勢。在接下來的三個(gè)月里，英國的預(yù)測低于不變點(diǎn)：下降 -4 點(diǎn)至新的指數(shù)值 49，GTB 表明英國貿(mào)易將溫和下降。下降的原因是空氣（-4 至 49）和海洋貿(mào)易（-5 至 48）略有減少。經(jīng)過幾個(gè)季度的相對彈性，

　　The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) indicates a further contraction in world trade for the next three months. The overall trade outlook is reduced by -2 points, to a new index value of 45. That means that global trade continues to lose momentum, albeit mildly. Against the previous updates, the downward tendency is largely moderate and steady, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming out. Except India, all surveyed countries are affected by the deceleration and record indexes below the 50-points-threshold of no growth. The overall decline was driven by minor decreases in both, air and containerized ocean trade. Air trade declined by -3 to 42 points, and containerized ocean trade by -2 to 46 index points. To make the DHL Global Trade Barometer and its data more assessable a new digital platform has been created under logisticsofthings.dhl/gtb. In addition, the index is now also available for subscribers of the Bloomberg terminal by using the code “DHLG ”.

　　“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”, Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says.

　　Steady but mild decline negatively affects all countries, except India

　　Out of seven surveyed countries, six record mildly negative trade outlooks: Germany and China both fall by -3 points to an index of 45 and 42, respectively. For Germany, this development is mainly triggered by a weakening air trade outlook, which significantly drops by -7 points to 45. The slowdown in Chinese trade is caused by both, sluggish air and ocean trade, leaving China with the weakest growth outlook of all surveyed countries. Needless to say, that this downturn can be attributed to the ongoing trade war between China and the US. US trade is also expected to contract further, albeit an almost unchanged overall trade outlook of 44 index points (-1 points compared to the previous update). The overall outlook for South Korea decreases by -2 points to a new index value of 43.

　　“The world economy is entering a phase of stagnation, reflecting weak and slowing growth in some major economies and essentially no growth or mild contraction in others. Persistent trade tensions, elevated political instability and geopolitical risks, and concerns about the limited efficacy of monetary stimulus continue to erode business and consumer sentiment, with detrimental effects on investment and productivity growth. Growth in household consumption, which has underpinned recent economic performance, has stayed strong but is weakening in major advanced and emerging market economies,” comments Eswar S. Prasad, Professor of Trade Policy and Economics at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, USA. “The latest DHL Global Trade Barometer update shows that international trade flows have been adversely impacted by these factors. The declining indexes for China and the U.S the two main drivers of global growth, portend a worsening global economic outlook. Overall, this GTB update paints a sobering picture of gloomy prospects for the world economy and global trade for the remainder of this year.”

　　India is the only country which manages to return to a moderate growth outlook, picking up +5 points to 54 on the back of a very robust ocean trade. In contrast to continuously weak air trade (-4 point to 44), Indian ocean trade significantly increases by +10 to an index of 60.

　　Decrease from previous period reaches Japan and UK with delay: Countries with highest losses

　　Apart from India, two country developments stand out in particular: Japan and the UK. While Japan and the UK had been the only countries with positive trade outlooks in the previous update in September, the two countries record the highest losses in this period. Both, Japan and the UK are falling below the 50-points-threshold.

　　Following a period of growth for Japanese trade, the forecast for Japan falls by -5 points to 48. This expected slowdown is mainly triggered by weakening prospects for Japanese air trade which drops by -7 points to 42 index points. Declining -4 points to 51, Japanese Ocean trade still records positive growth momentum. However, the slightly positive outlook is not able to offset the significant downturn of Japanese air trade. Unlike Japan, UK trade had already recorded a downward tendency in the previous update. For the next three months, the forecast for the UK falls below the point of no change for the first time: Dropping -4 points to a new index value of 49, the GTB indicates a mild decrease for UK trade. The decline is caused by a slight decrease in air (-4 to 49) as well as Ocean trade (-5 to 48). After several quarters of relative resilience, this development obviously reflects the persisting Brexit uncertainty.

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